Sic Semper Tyrannis

In Northern Virginia politics it is still 1997.

"After losing Virginia's governorship for the first time in eight years, some Democrats are trying to console themselves that Virginia is at its core a "red" state. This ignores not only that they won back-to-back governorships but also that Democrats defeated a sitting senator in 2006, took control of the state Senate in 2007 and won an open Republican Senate seat and three House seats in 2008 while carrying Virginia's electoral college votes for the first time since 1964. "  Ed Gillespie

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" Some Democrats?"  I suppose Ed Gillespie means people like me (see my previous post on the election)  No.  I am not a Democrat.  I am one of those independent libertarian conservatives that Ed's party no longer attracts very much.

His assertions about past Democratic victories in Virginia ring hollow to me.  As I wrote previously Gillespie's party nominated unattractive candidates for governor several times.  That is how they lost those elections.  Jim Webb did defeat the egregious George (Macaca) Allen to win a senate seat, but even in that uneven contest Webb, a genuine war hero and former Republican only won by a few thousand votes.  Mark Warner, a quintessential Virginia gentleman easily triumphed over former governor Jim Gilmore for the US senate seat left open when John Warner retired.  What a surprise!  Gilmore is the man who hand picked Mark Earley to be the Republican nominee for governor in the election in which Mark Warner became governor. Gilmore tried a number of jobs after leaving the governor's mansion in Richmond.  None of them worked out very well and Mark Warner finished him off in the senatorial election.  RIP.

It has been continuously asserted by Republican "strategists" that demographic change in Northern Virginia has changed the balance in Virginia politics forever and that as a result the real contest in Virginia politics is for this new and exciting factor (that is, the Yankee Northern Virginia vote)

Strangely enough, the graphic posted above and provided by the Washington Post indicates that the vote in Northern Virginia this year was exactly the same in political distribution as was the vote in 1997, twelve years ago.

Why is that?  That is an easy question to answer.  Self selection takes place in the way new residents distribute themselves in the Washington metropoitan area.  This happens when people move into the area and later as well when they decide where it is that they are more comfortable.

We "commonwealths" are not everyone's choice of neighbors.  pl

Another fool heard from.

"Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 70, said Obama has approached him several times through oral and written messages. It was the second time that Khamenei, who wields ultimate political and religious authority in Iran, has referred to the president's outreach.

The White House has not confirmed sending letters to the Iranian supreme leader but has acknowledged a willingness to talk to Tehran and said it has sought to communicate with Iranian leaders in a variety of ways.

In his harshest comments yet on the Obama administration, Khamenei said in a speech Tuesday that the United States has ill intentions toward Iran and is not to be trusted.

"The new U.S. president has said nice things," he said. "He has given us many spoken and written messages and said: 'Let's turn the page and create a new situation. Let's cooperate with each other in resolving world problems.' "

Khamenei said he had responded in March to Obama's overtures, referring to a speech in which he said he would wait for changes in U.S. policy toward Iran before reassessing ties.

Since then, Khamenei said, "what we have witnessed is completely the opposite of what they have been saying and claiming. On the face of things, they say, 'Let's negotiate.' But alongside this, they threaten us and say that if these negotiations do not achieve a desirable result, they will do this and that." "  Washpost

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Just crazy.  The last thing the US needs is another war but this is a step down the path that leads to that war.  pl

Politics really ARE local in Virginia.

As I expected, little has changed in Virginia.

The red places (most) are still firmly red and the blue places (few) are still blue.  The Democratic Party enclave on the Potomac remains a beachhead but only that.  Other than there, Deeds won among his neighbors in Bath and Allegheny Counties (a matter of courtesy), among black voters in traditional Democratic constituencies and in the little university community "islands" scattered across the state.

The Commonwealth remains reliably conservative in the bone deep attachment of the people to their own values, traditions and way of doing things.  Moderation, moderation, moderation; that is the touchstone in Virginia politics.

The crazed preachers do not win statewide races here and neither do their proteges.  The only serious threat to McDonnell's ascendancy was his bizarre association with Pat Robertson's university, but, on balance, he, and his family looked so familiar that people just overlooked that.

The Republican problem in Virginia in the past has been party apparatus driven candidate choices.  That collection of the defeated and discredited have reflected the national party's dream of becoming a majority through "outreach" and the delusions of the country club crowd that runs the state's party apparatus rather than the clear preferences of those who vote in all those red, red counties.  I have not forgotten the chilly reception that Earley received at the Republican convention in '01 in Richmond when he was nominated to run for governor against Mark Warner.  He spoke with fervor of his beliefs.  He spoke in half a dozen languages as he accepted the nomination.  Lao, Spanish, Cambodian, etc.  The crowd of delegates from all those red, red counties got quieter and quieter as he dug the "hole" deeper and deeper.  I left the convention convinced that he would lose and he did.

The lesson that the Republican Party in Virginia should learn from all this is that "you have to go home with the one(s) who brought you to the dance."   pl

Politics really ARE local in Virginia.

As I expected, little has changed in Virginia.

The red places (most) are still firmly red and the blue places (few) are still blue.  The Democratic Party enclave on the Potomac remains a beachhead but only that.  Other than there, Deeds won among his neighbors in Bath and Allegheny Counties (a matter of courtesy), among black voters in traditional Democratic constituencies and in the little university community "islands" scattered across the state.

The Commonwealth remains reliably conservative in the bone deep attachment of the people to their own values, traditions and way of doing things.  Moderation, moderation, moderation; that is the touchstone in Virginia politics.

The crazed preachers do not win statewide races here and neither do their proteges.  The only serious threat to McDonnell's ascendancy was his bizarre association with Pat Robertson's university, but, on balance, he, and his family looked so familiar that people just overlooked that.

The Republican problem in Virginia in the past has been party apparatus driven candidate choices.  That collection of the defeated and discredited have reflected the national party's dream of becoming a majority through "outreach" and the delusions of the country club crowd that runs the state's party apparatus rather than the clear preferences of those who vote in all those red, red counties.  I have not forgotten the chilly reception that Earley received at the Republican convention in '01 in Richmond when he was nominated to run for governor against Mark Warner.  He spoke with fervor of his beliefs.  He spoke in half a dozen languages as he accepted the nomination.  Lao, Spanish, Cambodian, etc.  The crowd of delegates from all those red, red counties got quieter and quieter as he dug the "hole" deeper and deeper.  I left the convention convinced that he would lose and he did.

The lesson that the Republican Party in Virginia should learn from all this is that "you have to go home with the one(s) who brought you to the dance."   pl

At least they are on high ground...

Paratroopers are foul mouthed.  It is one of their many charms.  Their leaders are foul mouthed as well although many seek to hide it. 

I was asked the classic question once.  "Why do you like to jump out of airplanes?"  My answer was also classic, "I don't but I like to serve with men who will do it." 

These men will sit there forever, if need be, on that little hill outside a walled village that wants them gone.  That is another of their charms.

The country owes them better than that.  pl

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2009/oct/28/afghanistan-war-us-strategy

Yesterday Iraq, today Afghanistan, tomorrow Somalia, then Yemen?

"ONE OF THE rhetorical questions frequently tossed out in the debate over Afghanistan concerns the brewing trouble in Somalia and Yemen, both of which are known to host al-Qaeda cadres and training camps. If it's necessary to pacify Afghanistan to protect U.S. security, goes the taunt, must we also intervene in Somalia and Yemen?

The presumed answer is: "Of course not -- and therefore why bother with Afghanistan?" The more sensible response is: If something is not done soon about these lawless places, one or the other may well become the next Afghanistan -- a place where U.S. military intervention was compelled by a devastating attack on the homeland. "  Washpost lead editorial

 

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Can there be any doubt that what the Post has in mind are COIN campaigns in these and all other "necessary" places?

 

"COIN = political reform + economic development + counterguerilla operations."  (Bernard Fall's definition)

 

The prophets of COINism must be upset today with their fellow travelers at the Post.  This kind of thought must be concealed from the American electorate if they are to be manipulated into acceptance of the unending series of revolutionary wars that are the emerging destiny of the United States.

 

The COIN prophets+the COIN generals+the neocon revolutionaries+the neocon driven corporate media; this coalition of the obsessed and the self-obsessed is driving America towards commitment to a future filled with COINist zeal for revolutionary change across the world, starting with the Islamic world.

 

The inevitable end of that development will be national bankruptcy and political unrest that will make the 60s and 70s look trivial by comparison.

 

We should thank the editorial page of the Post for revealing what this all about.  pl

 

 

 

Afghanistan - Will we pay the price for COIN there?

"... let's examine the hard side, which is the terrain of Special Operations forces. They have two distinct faces. One is the "black" SOF that attacks high-value Taliban targets. These are stealthy and superkinetic operations, using the latest technology to hunt enemy fighters and then capture or kill them. The mission, basically, is to make it very dangerous to be a Taliban operative -- and thereby shift the balance of intimidation in this war. The SOF warriors are also targeting the networks that produce the roadside bombs killing coalition troops.

There's a softer side of SOF, too, in the so-called "A-teams" (short for "Operational Detachment Alpha"), which are fighting what they call "unconventional war." They are sent into towns and villages to work with the Afghan army and police -- and, under a new program, to assist tribal leaders whose power and authority have been sapped by the Taliban. These are creative operations, employing some of America's best soldiers. They reflect a growing understanding of what counterinsurgency experts call the "human terrain map."

"It's like all the instruments in an orchestra," says a U.S. military commander of the different parts of the battle plan. "You have to know how to play them together."

As Obama has deliberated Afghanistan strategy, the debate has tended to polarize between "CI" and "CT" advocates. But this is a false argument. What the United States actually has in Afghanistan is a mixture. Obama must now decide whether to provide the resources -- and take the risks -- to test whether this combined strategy can succeed."  Ignatius

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David Ignatius is an interestng man.  I sat on a panel discussion with him and some other people long ago when I still worked for the government.  He said at the beginning that it was unfair that I be there since I had access to classified information and therefore knew the truth.  I  thought that was an odd attitude for a journalist.  He seems to have overcome that handicap and to be well and thoroughly briefed wherever he goes.

In this editorial he passes on to us the results of his latest "ration" of information in Afghanistan.  He lays out some of the elements of the over all COIN effort that is being created.  Some of it is SOF in both aspects.  It is striking that Ignatius is just now learning what "unconventional warfare" means in the Special Forces context.

Ignatius poses the question that his briefers want asked.  That question is whether or not Obama will give them the forces and other resources they want to execute this strategy that they and their civilian advisers have devised and which they are pressing on the Commander in Chief.

They have missed the real issue in the present dispute. 

That issue is not if Obama can be manipulated into doing what they want.  The real issue is whether or not the American electorate can be persuaded to support the effort that they want for very long. 

I would say that they can not be so persuaded, and therefore a more modest effort should be designed.

The advocates of the "go big or go home" strategy probably think that their information operations will deal with that problem.

I doubt it.  pl

 

Someone should tell Larry Derfner that he is an Anti-Semite.

"Victims? Lambs to the slaughter? Us?

No, this has gone beyond embarrassing; this is out-and-out shameful.

And, despite our excuses, it's not that we're "traumatized" by the past into believing that we're still weak, still the frightened, powerless Jews about to be led to the gas chambers. Many Holocaust survivors still believe this, and to some very limited extent, this vestigial fear still takes up space in the Israeli mind.

But by now, 64 years after the Holocaust, 42 years after seeing in the Six Day War how strong we'd become, we know, whether we admit it to ourselves or not, that we aren't the victims anymore. We know we aren't a continuation of the 6 million but rather a deliberate and stark departure from them.

THE REASON we tell ourselves and the world that we are victims is because we know, whether we admit it to ourselves or not, that victimhood is power. Victimhood is freedom. A victim can't be told to restrain himself. A victim fighting for survival can't be accused of abusing his power because, after all, his back is to the wall, he's desperate.

On the facts, it's very hard to convince ourselves, let alone the world, that Gaza and its Kassams have pushed Fortress Israel's back to the wall, that we're desperate, that we're struggling to survive. So, to convince ourselves and the world that this really is so, we do two things.

One, we refuse to acknowledge any facts that mar this image of ourselves as victims, and instead go over and over and over only the facts that fit the picture. "  Derfner in the JP

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I hope the Israelis can find their way out of the dark forest of nationalism.  pl

 

More Nozette Court papers

30 October 2009

Here are some more documents from the court files in the new attempted espionage case against Stewart Nozette and in the older, pending case against him for conspiracy to commit fraud and tax evasion.

I. The attempted espionage case.

There was a detention hearing yesterday, 29 October 2009, before a magistrate, and Nozette was ordered held before trial without bail. I doubt he will appeal the detention order to the district judge in the trial court.

1. Motion to reassign the case as a related case.

Since the earlier case was in a different court than that of Judge Reggie Walton, the government asked that the new case be transferred to the other court, Judge James Robertson presiding. Filed 28 October 2009.

2. Government's memorandum in support of detention pending trial. Filed 10-28-2009.

This lays out some proposed facts and legal argument in support of detaining Nozette without bail pending trial.

The memo notes that he was given $10,000 by the undercover informant during the last meeting, and then went into the bathroom and put it in the toilet tank. Also, it asserts that Nozette has numerous residential properties including a home in Chevy Chase, Maryland which was given a tax assessment value of $1,959,999.00, and a vacation home on Merritt Island, Florida with a claimed value of $550,000.00.

Those are some pretty nice cribs.

3. Exhibit "A" in support of the request for pretrial detention.

This is a bad copy of what appears to be his release order in the pending fraud and tax evasion case, in which he was released on his own signature ("personal recognizance"), and did not have to post bail.

Exhibit "B" is not included because it is the complaint and supporting affidavit in the espionage case and they have been posted previously.

Exhibit "C" is not included because it is described as an early transcript of some more taped conversations. It is noted as being "restricted" and does not appear to be a public document at this time.

4. Defendant's opposition to motion for pretrial detention.

Filed 10-28-2009.

II. The earlier pending case for fraud and tax evasion.

This case is one of those in which the defendant knows a charge is coming, and he and his lawyers go in early and make a deal before an arrest takes place. He waived his right to be formally charged by a grand jury indictment, and pled guilty on 30 January 2009. Sentencing was postponed.

On 23 April 2009 attorney Bradford Berenson entered an appearance for Nozette, and then the lawyers who had been representing him withdrew. Berenson had a White House job during the first term of Bush jr.

Nozette's sentencing in the earlier case was reset to

18 November 2009, but will probably be postponed again.

His new lawyer, Berenson, filed today a motion to continue his sentencing in light of the new case.

The government did not agree to reset the sentencing.

Since he picked up a new case, there is an issue of whether the government will try to cancel the plea agreement, but since it wants to proceed with sentencing, the plea agreement may stay in place.

5. Plea agreement in the fraud and tax evasion case.

6. Statement of the offense.

This is the "factual basis" to support the plea of guilty in the earlier case.

7. Motion to continue sentencing. Filed 30 October 2009.

Robert Willmann, Jr.

 

Download Nozette_def_reply_govt_reqdetain.pdf

Download Nozette_govt_memosupport_exhA.pdf

Download Nozette_govt_memosupport_reqdetain.pdf

Download Nozette_govt_reqtrans_newjudge.pdf

Download Nozette_othercase_plea_agreement.pdf

Download Nozette_othercase_plea_factbasis.pdf

Download Nozette_othercase_req_resetsentencing

NYU Conference on Counterinsurgency - 20 November, 2009

Download Save the Date! November 20 Conference